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Think tank against debt restructuring | The Express Tribune

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ISLAMABAD:

A government think tank has opposed public debt restructuring despite serious questions about the sustainability of the debt burden and external financing requirements, which are projected to be a minimum of $72 billion for the next three years.

The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), funded by the government, has voiced its opposition to debt restructuring, deeming it difficult and time-consuming, as stated in its reforms agenda unveiled this week.

The government has long avoided this path, despite significant challenges such as low foreign exchange reserves, rising interest payments, and subdued economic growth prospects under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.

Pakistan’s gross official foreign exchange reserves remain at $8 billion, with the country set to spend around Rs8.5 trillion on interest payments, while economic growth is expected to remain muted under the new IMF programme. According to the PIDE report, Pakistan’s external financing requirements are estimated at $72 billion for fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with a minimum of $22 billion needed in the next fiscal year alone.

Instead of debt restructuring, the PIDE has proposed focusing on enhancing economic growth, increasing exports, improving productivity, boosting investment, fostering growth in listed corporates, and developing domestic markets.

The alternatives proposed by the PIDE are known, but the country lacks the enabling environment to implement them.

The PIDE stressed that the external financing requirements for the next fiscal year amount to 171% of the estimated foreign exchange reserves, indicating the country’s economic dependence on the IMF programme, which it sees as a necessity.

The IMF considers Pakistan’s debt sustainable as long as the country meets its financing needs with the help of bilateral and multilateral creditors. However, this strategy keeps Islamabad dependent on these lenders, often leading to compromises on political and commercial issues. Out of the estimated $22 billion needed, Pakistan requires $12 billion in rollovers from Saudi Arabia, China, and the United Arab Emirates annually.

Read SBP facilitated govt debt: report

A finance ministry official stated that debt restructuring was not the only way forward.

The PIDE argued that to reduce its debt burden, Pakistan needs a growth rate of 7% to 8%, requiring an investment rate of 28.8%, which is unattainable due to severe fiscal and external conditions.

The World Bank’s Pakistan Development Update report forecasted economic growth rates of no more than 2.3% in the next fiscal year and 2.7% in the following year, with low growth leading to higher unemployment and poverty. The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has yet to broker any major foreign investment deals. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, on Tuesday, reviewed the implementation status of Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) signed with Gulf countries, but these initial understandings have not translated into concrete agreements.

The SIFC initially aimed to complete the Reko Diq deal by March of this year, but ongoing feasibility studies and price discovery issues may delay the project’s completion.

The World Bank warned that Pakistan is expected to face liquidity pressures over the medium term, with significant gross financing needs due to maturing short-term domestic debt, multilateral and bilateral repayments, and Eurobond maturities.

The World Bank report highlighted depleted policy buffers, high debt levels, and tight foreign exchange reserves. The primary deficit is expected to grow to 0.3% of GDP during next two fiscal years and a deeper fiscal consolidation over the medium term will be necessary to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, it added.

The World Bank report stated that with 72% of domestic debt composed of floating-rate instruments, high policy rates (of 22%) directly impact domestic debt servicing, leading to a significant increase in interest payments on domestic debt – which grew by 63.5% during the first half of this fiscal year.

Efforts for fiscal consolidation have been hindered by mounting interest payments, projected to reach Rs9.5 trillion for the next fiscal year without corrective measures.

The PIDE proposed fiscal consolidation beyond tax collection, advocating for a uniform tax rate across all sources of income, abolition of presumptive tax regimes, turnover tax, and alternative corporate tax, along with uniformity in sole proprietor and corporate tax rates, elimination of withholding taxes, and transitioning to an advanced income tax regime.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 4th, 2024.

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Pakistan

Aurangzeb warns non-filers of ‘restrictions’ as Pakistan clinches $7bn IMF deal

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Minister for Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb speaks with Voice of America during an interview in New York, US. — Screengrab via VOA

ISLAMABAD: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has warned non-filers of strict restrictions which will “further limit their ability to conduct various activities,” as Pakistan secured International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board’s approval for a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

A day earlier, the Washington-based lender sealed the deal with Islamabad, approving Pakistan’s loan with its first tranche of $1.1 billion likely to be released by September 30, 2024.

The interest rate on the loan is less than 5%, sources in the Ministry of Finance said, adding the IMF may disburse the second instalment within this fiscal year.

The cash-strapped country had to undertake a slew of measures demanded by the IMF, including broadening the tax next, enforcing tax on agricultural income, and increasing the electricity and natural gas prices.

In an interview with Voice of America today, the FinMin emphasised that fundamental economic reforms were needed to make the existing IMF programme “the last one for the country”.

“Transformation of the economy into an export-driven one necessitates structural reforms, only then could the country move forward in the next three years.”

Aurangzeb said, the friendly countries have assured financial support to meet the financial needs through the new Fund programme.

“We had no choice but to implement economic reforms, which included bringing sectors currently outside the tax net into the fold,” he noted.

However, the minister said, the burden on salaried and manufacturing classes would be reduced and highlighted the need to bring into tax net the retailers, wholesalers, agriculture, and property sectors.

He said that despite a 29% increase in revenues last year, the tax-to-GDP ratio remained at 9%, which is insufficient to stabilise any country’s economy.

In line with the conditions of IMF — which had repeatedly demanded improved tax collection, the federal government presented the tax-loaded Rs18.877 trillion budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25) in June.

The budget aimed at raising Rs13 trillion by next July, a roughly 40% increase from the current financial year, to bring down a ruinous debt burden that has caused 57% of government revenue to be swallowed by interest payments.

In response to a question, Aurangzeb mentioned that the government was abolishing the term “non-filer” and will impose restrictions on tax evaders, limiting their ability to conduct various activities.

On Tuesday, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) announced a series of restrictions targeting non-filers to enhance tax compliance and broaden the tax base by abolishing the non-filer category, as per The News report.

The initial restrictions include purchasing property, buying cars, investing in mutual funds, opening current accounts and engaging in international travel, except those for religious purposes.

Elimination of the non-filer category means that individuals who previously paid a small fee to avoid taxes on these transactions will no longer be able to evade tax obligations.

In today’s interview, the finance minister also noted that the government possesses data on individuals’ lifestyles, including the number of vehicles owned, international travel, and other expenditures. This information will enable the FBR to bring tax evaders into the tax net without arrest, he added.

He pointed out that Pakistan’s undocumented economy has been valued at Rs.9 trillion, which needed to be documented.

“Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif believed that business should be handled by the private sector and not by the government. To achieve this, the cabinet’s privatisation committee has advanced the privatisation process of government institutions to its final stages”, he added.

PM Shehbaz meets IMF chief

On Thursday (today), Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a meeting with Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York.

Appreciating the collaboration with IMF for a successful Staff Level Agreement (SLA) for a 37-month, $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan, the prime minister highlighted the government’s commitment to implementing structural reforms and promoting private sector development.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva on sidelines of the UNGA session in New York on September 26, 2024. — PID
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva on sidelines of the UNGA session in New York on September 26, 2024. — PID

He also appreciated the IMF’s technical assistance and capacity-building programs, which have helped strengthen the country’s institutions and improve its economic management.

The IMF managing director expressed the Fund’s support for Pakistan’s efforts and emphasised the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability and promoting inclusive and sustainable growth.

During the meeting, they also discussed the urgent need to mobilise adaptation financing for climate change.

The prime minister agreed to have the finance minister take up this critical issue with senior management at the IMF during the Annual Meetings in October.

The two leaders also agreed to strengthen cooperation between the government and the IMF to promote economic stability and growth.


— With additional input from APP

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Pakistan govt mulls subsidized Loan Program for Electric Vehicles through SBP – Pakistan Observer

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ISLAMABAD – Pakistani government is taking steps to promote electric vehicles (EVs) through various strategies, and is considering subsidies and tax rebates to lower purchase costs, along with investments in charging infrastructure.

These measures aimed to cut emissions and to promote automakers to produce more EVs. In latest proposal, the federal government is planning to launch a credit guarantee scheme aimed at promoting electric vehicle (EV) adoption through the central bank.

In this regard, the government is allocating Rs4 billion to purchase 42,000 electric vehicles, including 40,000 bikes and 2,000 three-wheelers. Under international obligations on gender equality, 25pc of the funding will be reserved specifically for women, while the remaining 75% will be available to the general public.

EV Loan Scheme Pakistan

Banks in the country will provide loans up to Rs1 million at an interest rate of KIBOR + 3pc, with the same rate offered as a subsidy to borrowers.

These proposals were discussed during recent steering committee meeting while Secretary of the Ministry of Industries and Production (MoI&P) emphasised the need for consultation with the SBP before the official announcement of the financing scheme, and suggested that EV manufacturers take charge of loan management.

Additionally, concerns were raised about 18pc sales tax on localised components, which impacts manufacturing costs. Industries & Production ministry secretary indicated that EV manufacturers could claim tax refunds on local production and proposed that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) create a mechanism to facilitate this process.

This initiative is expected to significantly boost the electric vehicle sector in Pakistan, making EVs more accessible to consumers and promoting sustainable transportation solutions across the country.

Pakistan’s first indigenously-built electric car to hit market by December 2024

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CCP approves corporate restructuring of Nishat Chunian Group – Pakistan Observer

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ISLAMABAD – The Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) has approved internal restructuring involving Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL), Nishat Chunian Power Limited (NCPL), Nishat Mills Limited (NML), and the CEO of NCL, Shahzad Saleem.
This internal restructuring, undertaken as part of the Scheme of Arrangement, aims to streamline the corporate structure of the Nishat Chunian Group.
The CCP’s Phase-I competition assessment has revealed the primary business activities of each undertaking involved in the transaction.
NCL, a publicly listed company, engages in textile-related operations, including spinning, weaving, dyeing, fabric processing, and the generation and sale of electricity.
Nishat Chunian Power Limited (NCPL), a public listed company, specializes in building, owning, and operating fuel-fired power stations. It functions as an Independent Power Producer (IPP) and has a Power Purchase Agreement with the Central Power Purchasing Agency (Guarantee) Ltd (CPPA-G).

Similarly, Nishat Mills Limited (NML), another publicly listed company, focuses on textile manufacturing with activities spanning spinning, weaving, and the production of various fabrics, while also engaging in electricity generation.

In its assessment, the CCP has identified the relevant product markets as ‘spinning, weaving, home textile, and thermal power generation- CPPA-G’.

The restructuring will lead to a nominal increase in Shahzad’s shareholding in NCL, while NML will experience a slight rise in its shareholding in NCPL.

Despite these changes, the CCP has confirmed that the transaction will not result in any market dominance by the merger parties. 

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Kashmir Bakers among 17 businesses sealed in Lahore – Pakistan Observer

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LAHORE – The Lahore Development Authority (LDA) continued operations against violation of building bylaws and illegal commercial use in Lahore.
On Tuesday, LDA sealed Kashmir Bakers and Sweets and 16 other premises for illegal commercial use and not paying commercialization fees during operations in Allama Iqbal Town, Sabzazar and Marghazar Colony.

LDA also demolished eight structures for violation of building bylaws.

LDA Chief Town Planner-I Assad-uz-Zaman supervised the operations which were carried out by the enforcement teams with the help of Police and heavy machinery.
According to the LDA officials, several notices were served to the owners of these buildings before the operations were carried out.
LDA Director General Tahir Farooq has directed continuing indiscriminate operations against illegal commercial buildings and commercial fees defaulters in Lahore.

Butt Karahi Tikka, Apotek Pharmacy among 24 businesses sealed in Lahore

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