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Playing dumb: Behind the surprising betting interest on Bronny James

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The proposition was seemingly so outlandish that some bookmakers were hesitant to post odds on it: Would anyone really bet on Bronny James to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft?

The answer was yes, and lots of them, and not just recreational bettors, either.

On May 12, after some debate, BetMGM opened Bronny as a 200-1 long shot to be the first pick. The son of active legend LeBron James, Bronny didn’t have the playing résumé typically required to even be in the discussion as the top pick. It didn’t matter.

Bets started showing up on Bronny, one after the other at BetMGM. Most of the wagers were small, but there were hundreds of them, from across the country. On the day before the draft, there had been more bets on Bronny to be the top pick than any other player at BetMGM.

“We were debating even putting it up, to be honest with you,” Halvor Egeland, senior trader for BetMGM, said during a draft day phone interview with ESPN. “We definitely didn’t expect it to strike the most bets when we put it up.”

It’s not the first time that the American betting public has latched onto a long shot with an unrealistic narrative. Each year, bettors place wagers on Charles Barkley to win the American Century Championship at 5,000-1 odds or higher. Barkley, a notoriously bad golfer, finished 105 points behind last year’s winner, Stephen Curry, and has never finished better than 60th in the tournament. Last year, it was Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes to win the national championship at 300-1 odds. The Buffaloes, coming off a one-win campaign, entered the 2023 season having attracted more title bets than established contenders such as the Florida State Seminoles and Texas Longhorns. Coach Prime and Colorado fell short of winning the national championship, finishing 4-8, last in the Pac-12.

This year, it was Bronny, who averaged 4.8 points per game coming off the bench for the USC Trojans as a freshman last season. Still, the combination of Bronny’s pedigree, his father’s influence in the NBA and a draft class without a consensus top pick was enough for an unexpected number of bettors to take a shot on him going first.

“I think it’s more of a LeBron James bet than it is a Bronny bet,” Egeland said, referencing the theory that a team might have drafted Bronny in hopes of attracting LeBron, too.

Some of the bettors who bet on Bronny had ulterior motives.

Steve, a 27-year-old avid sports bettor in Chicago, explained his reasoning for placing $60 worth of bets on Bronny James to go No. 1.

“Every once in a while you get to look especially stupid, and, to me, this is one of the best opportunities to look dumb that I’ve seen in a long time,” Steve told ESPN about his decision to bet on Bronny. “I don’t even view Bronny as a good college player and think there’s basically no chance that he goes No. 1 overall.”

Steve bets player props and has had enough success that sportsbooks have significantly restricted the amount he’s allowed to wager, down to a few bucks at some spots. To hopefully trick the books into raising his betting limits, from time to time, Steve tries to “play dumb”. For example, he bet on Colorado to win the national championship last year and has backed Tiger Woods in recent major championships. The idea was the same with his Bronny bets: look as square as possible.

“I’ve been limited at all these books,” Steve said. “I’m not really betting that Bronny will go No. 1 overall; what I’m effectively betting is that there’s some chance that all these books will say, ‘whoever bet Bronny must be dumb’ and then they’ll give me better limits. That’s the bet that I’m making.” Steve was not alone in using Bronny bets to raise their limits at sportsbooks. Alex Baker, a former high-level daily fantasy sports player, saw social media posts about heavy action on Bronny going No. 1 and decided to put $20 on it. He posted a screenshot of his bet slip on X with a tongue-in-cheek line.

Baker placed the bet mostly to have a little fun on X but also admits that in the back of his mind he hoped that by hopping on the public betting bandwagon the sportsbooks might up his limits. Baker said he attempted to bet $100 but was only allowed a smaller amount.

“When I put the bet in on FanDuel I got limited to $22.50, so they were pretty scared at taking the action on this,” Baker told ESPN. “But I’ve won enough off of FanDuel, so I thought I’d give 20 bucks back.”

There was also sincere sharp action on Bronny to be taken by the Los Angeles Lakers with the No. 55 pick. The over/under on Bronny’s draft position opened in the mid-40s and closed at 54.5, with sportsbooks charging a premium to bet that he’d be taken at 55 or later. At BetRivers sportsbooks, more money was bet on the over on Bronny’s draft position than any other wager offered on the draft.

Bronny would indeed go to the Lakers in the second round at pick No. 55, resulting in a small loss for some sportsbooks, but nothing like what they would’ve endured if he had gone No. 1.

Money kept showing up on Bronny to be the top pick all the way until NBA commissioner Adam Silver announced the start of the draft. BetMGM reported taking a $500 bet on Bronny to be the top pick at 250-1 odds in the hours leading up to the first round. When BetMGM closed betting on the odds to go No. 1, there were more bets on Bronny than Zaccharie Risacher, the eventual top pick.

Egeland said while the amount BetMGM would’ve lost if Bronny had gone No. 1 wasn’t massive, he added “we definitely wouldn’t love it.”

“It’s by far our biggest liability for the draft, probably 10 times more than any other individual selection,” Egeland said.

As of Monday, there had been more bets at BetMGM on Bronny James to win Rookie of the Year than on any other player. His odds: 250-1.

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Revised schedule of Pakistan vs England Test series announced

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Players from the Pakistan and England teams during a match. — AFP/File

KARACHI: Pakistan’s cricket board on Friday announced a revised schedule for a series it will hold against England next month, ending weeks of uncertainty including reports it could be moved abroad.

The first two Tests will be held back-to-back in Multan and the last in Rawalpindi, skipping Karachi where ongoing construction at the National Stadium has forced the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) to tweak the schedule.

“The series will start in Multan with the first Test from October 7-11 and the second Test — originally scheduled for Karachi — has been shifted to Multan, as the stadium in Karachi is undergoing (a) major facelift for next year’s Champions Trophy,” said a statement from the PCB.

The second Test will start from October 15, while the third in Rawalpindi will be staged from October 24.

The England men’s cricket team will arrive in Multan on October 2 for their second tour of Pakistan in two years.

The announcement ended weeks of frustrating wait by the England and Wales Cricket Board who were seeking clarity on the schedule.

Moreover, there were media reports of shifting the series to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where Pakistan was forced to play its home matches from 2010 to 2019.

Revised schedule:

7-11 Oct – First Test, Multan

15-19 Oct – Second Test, Multan 2

4-28 Oct – Third Test, Rawalpindi

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ICC delegation satisfied over Champions Trophy 2025 preparations

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The grand National Bank Stadium, previously known as National Stadium Karachi, pictured before a Pakistan Super League (PSL) match between Peshawar Zalmi and Multan Sultans on March 13, 2020 in Karachi, Pakistan. — AFP

ISLAMABAD: A delegation of the International Cricket Council (ICC) met Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) Chairman Mohsin Naqvi and discussed arrangements made for the ICC Champions Trophy to be held in the country next year. 

The ICC envoy expressed satisfaction in Karachi and Rawalpindi for the preparations ahead of the tournament. 

The delegation was also satisfied with the security arrangements and protocols in Karachi, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. 

A detailed discussion on security arrangements for the tournament also took place in the meeting, said a press release.

The ICC delegation included ICC Senior Manager Events Sarah Edgar, Event Manager and Champions Trophy Event Lead Aun Muhammad Zaidi, General Manager Cricket ICC Wasim Khan, Security Manager David Musker and Broadcast consultant Mansoor Manj.

From the PCB, Director International Cricket Usman Wahla, Director Security Colonel (retired) Khalid Mehmood, and Head of Marketing Salman Mesud attended the meeting.

PCB Chairman Naqvi assured the ICC delegation of world-class arrangements for the ICC Champions Trophy 2025.

He further said that the upgradation work of the stadiums will be completed well before the tournament, and foolproof security arrangements will be made for all participating teams.

“Hosting the ICC Champions Trophy in Pakistan is an honour, and preparations are being finalised to match the grandeur of the tournament,” the cricketing body chairman stated.

Naqvi assured the ICC that all teams participating will enjoy playing in a peaceful and secure environment.

“After the upgradation, the stadiums will be equipped with international-standard facilities, enhancing the spectators’ experience,” Naqvi added regarding the work at the stadiums that will host the mega event next year.

“The Pakistani nation has a deep love for cricket and will support all teams during the mega event in February and March next year,” Naqvi concluded. 

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South Africa inflict 2-1 defeat over Pakistan in women’s T20I series

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South African women team players pictured during the third T20I against Pakistan in Multan on September 20, 2024. — Facebook/PakistanCricketBoard

South Africa women on Friday triumphed over Pakistan in the third T20I to secure a 2-1 victory against the Green Shirts in the three-match series.

The visitors, during the match at Multan Cricket Stadium, bagged a convincing win over the national side by chasing down the 154-run target in 18.3 overs while only losing two wickets.

Opener Laura Wolvaardt (45) and Annerie Dercksen (44*) starred for the Proteas with Anneke Bosch also pitching in 46 runs before getting retired hurt.

Suné Luus scored 14* runs whereas opener Tazmin Brits failed to score after being stumped on the very first ball she faced.

For Pakistan Sadia Iqbal and Tuba Hassan bagged one wicket each.

Earlier in the day, winning the toss, South Africa chose to bowl first and restricted the national side to 153 for five.

Batting first, Sidra Ameen emerged as the highest run-scorer for the Green Shirts with her 37-run knock. Meanwhile, Muneeba Ali and skipper Fatima Sana scored 33 and 27 runs, respectively.

Chloe Tryon, Tumi Sekhukhune, Nonkululeko Mlaba and Luus and dismissed one batter each for the visitors.

South Africa’s Luus was awarded the Player of the series while Dercksen was named Player of the match for their key contribution in the series and the last match, respectively.

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Sources: ACC, Clemson, FSU renew revenue talks

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Talks between Clemson, Florida State and the ACC have ramped up in recent weeks, according to sources, on a proposal that would allot a greater share of revenue to schools based on brand valuation and television ratings, as well as potentially alter the expiration of the league’s grant of rights — which currently runs through 2036 — in exchange for the Tigers and Seminoles dropping their lawsuits against the conference.

According to multiple sources within the league, the conversations are preliminary and the sides are not close to an agreement, but the conversations represent a strong signal that Florida State and Clemson are open to remaining in the conference under more favorable financial terms.

The proposal, which was formulated by Clemson and Florida State and discussed by the league’s presidents during Tuesday’s regularly scheduled meeting, includes additional money going to schools with better ratings success in football and basketball.

While the proposal has not been widely distributed or discussed among conference athletic directors, administrators from more than a half-dozen schools who spoke with ESPN said they would at least be open to some altered revenue split.

In 2022-23, the ACC distributed an average of $44.8 million per school, roughly $7 million less than the SEC; however, that difference is expected to grow to more than $30 million when accounting for the SEC’s new television contract, which began this year.

Florida State athletic director Michael Alford has called the forthcoming revenue gap an existential threat, and he pushed for the ACC to divide revenue unequally during the league’s 2023 spring meetings, asking for more money to go to schools that had success on the field as well as those that drew the highest ratings for television. The league ultimately agreed to institute a new revenue-sharing policy dubbed “success initiatives” that would reward programs that made bowl games, the College Football Playoff or the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournament with a higher share of postseason revenue, but at the time, ADs were not interested in any plan that included brand valuation or television ratings, too.

In the months that followed, however, Florida State and Clemson filed lawsuits against the ACC in an effort to extricate themselves from the league’s grant of rights, which binds each member’s media rights to the ACC through June 2036. The ACC countersued both parties in North Carolina. To date, little movement has occurred on the legal front, and should the cases go to trial, a final resolution to the lawsuits could still be years away, according to attorneys for all sides. As part of a judge’s ruling in Leon County, Florida, the sides were required to enter into mediation, which is when discussions about ratings-based revenue splits took on new life.

Within the proposal put forth by Clemson and Florida State, the term of the grant of rights would also be reduced — potentially as early as 2030 — to better fall in line with the expiration of TV deals in the Big 12 and Big Ten.

While the basic talking points of the proposal had some support within member schools, there were significant questions about the details. As one athletic director who supported the general idea noted, properly evaluating something like TV ratings can be difficult with numerous outside factors influencing kickoff times, networks and ratings share that may not directly reflect a program’s value.

Several administrators who did not support the proposal did admit there was a potential incentive to continue discussions if it helped insure the future of the conference for the foreseeable future, with one noting that it would be better than seeing the ACC fall apart completely and another suggesting a brand-based revenue split could be inevitable for every league as TV contracts continue to grow and leagues continue to expand.

The ACC is also in talks with ESPN, which holds an exclusive option to extend the league’s television contract from 2027 through 2036. ESPN must pick up or decline the option by February 2025.

The ACC declined to comment on the status of discussions on changes to the revenue distribution model, but in May, commissioner Jim Phillips said he was open to all options that would secure the league’s standing.

“You have to stay optimistic,” Phillips said, “and you work through these things. We’ll manage what we have to manage, and I’m always optimistic about a really good ending out of this situation. I won’t have a change until somebody else tells me different. But am I going to fight for the ACC? Absolutely. That’s my responsibility.”

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