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Foreign investment in T-bills rises | The Express Tribune

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KARACHI:

Amid nationwide hue and cry over spike in electricity prices and taxes-laden budget, foreign investors have continued to boost investment in Pakistan’s rupee-denominated government debt securities. Their confidence is buoyed by expectations that interest rates will remain high and the rupee-dollar exchange rate will stay stable in the short term.

Citing the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) latest update, Topline Research reported foreign investment inflows into treasury bills (T-bills) jumped to $444 million in the previous fiscal year ended June 30, 2024 with the investment hitting a four-year high in May 2024.

Muhammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, commented, “With high interest rate and stable currency, Pakistan has attracted $57 million net dollar inflows into T-bills through Special Convertible Rupee Accounts (SCRA) in the month of June 2024 till 7th.”

“We believe once Pakistan gets the new long-term International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal, chances are high that more of such funds will come to get high-yielding government papers, thereby providing short-term support to FX (foreign exchange) reserves and currency.”

In May 2024, Pakistan attracted $230 million, which is the highest monthly inflow after four years. To recall, in FY20, net T-bill inflows amounted to $612 million, peaking in January 2020 with monthly inflows of $1.4 billion.

It is pertinent to note that foreign investors are taking positions in domestic debt securities after the rate of profit started falling in the developed countries.

Many foreign investors are believed to be borrowing from their respective domestic banks at comparatively lower interest rate (6-7%) and investing in Pakistan’s high return (20%) offering T-bills, thereby pocketing the difference in the rates in the two markets. This strategy has helped maintain the country’s foreign exchange reserves stable at slightly below $9 billion.

Muhammad Awais Ashraf, Director Research at AKD Securities, said the revival of foreign investment in the local sovereign debt securities is the result of consistency in the central bank’s policy.

“The consistency in the SBP’s benchmark policy rate (interest rate) and rupee-dollar exchange rate has won back the foreign investors’ confidence,” he noted.

The central bank held interest rate at a record high of 22% for almost a year (June 2023 to June 2024) and made the first cut in four years of 1.5 percentage points to 20.5% in June 2024.

It is expected to hold the rate at 20.5% in July 2024 after inflation rose to 12.6% in June, compared to a two-and-a-half-month low at 11.8% in May 2024. This would keep the rate of return on T-bills on the higher side (around 20%), encouraging foreign investors to continue to take new positions.

Besides, the rupee-dollar exchange rate has remained stable at Rs278-278.70/$ for the past few months.

Ashraf anticipated the rupee-dollar parity to remain stable at around current levels for up to six months (until December 2024), which would continue to attract foreign investment in T-bills. According to his forecast, the rupee is likely to remain strong on continuation of the policy of controlling imports to maintain current account deficit on the lower side and manage with low foreign exchange reserves.

He did not rule out the investment rising to the previous high level of $3.6 billion in less than two years till March 2020 through the same economic engineering. However, the fast changing social and political landscape carries a risk.

Nationwide protests and calls from political parties to stage a sit-in against the hike in power prices and heavy taxes may disrupt economic indicators along with any delay in securing the next IMF loan programme.

Ashraf projected that Pakistan would secure the IMF loan programme by the end of July, considering the country would fulfill its promises by announcing a new power tariff and giving a plan to control the circular debt.

The ongoing public outcry, however, may delay the implementation of such tariff hikes and could compel the government to soften its stance on higher taxes.

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Pakistan

Pakistan, Russia plan to establish new steel mill in Karachi – Pakistan Observer

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ISLAMABAD – The government is considering a proposal to establish a new steel mill in Karachi with Russian cooperation and the both countries agreed to form working groups to move forward on the project.

In this regard, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Russian Federation Aleksei Gruzdev met with Minister for Industries, Production and National Food Security Rana Tanveer Hussain.

The minister informed that the government has earmarked 700 acres land of Pakistan Steel Mills for establishing a new steel mill. He said despite being blessed with considerable reserves of iron ore (estimated reserves of 1887 million tons), Pakistan is forced to import around $2.7 billion of iron and steel.

There is perpetual gap between domestic production and demand of iron and steel. For the last year, the gap is estimated at 3.1 million tons, he added.

Pakistan’s per capita steel consumption level is below even those of developing countries indicating significant growth potential over medium and long term.

He said efficiency of Pakistan’s steel industry is limited as it segmented (600 small units) and based on old inefficient technology.

The proposed site is located at Karachi and in closed to Port Qasim that reduces cost of transportation of raw materials.

Pakistan’s industrial and agricultural experts are set to visit Russia, marking a significant step in strengthening bilateral ties between the two nations. During the meeting, they emphasized on balance trade between both countries.

Rana Tanveer stressed the need for modern agricultural machinery to boost crop yields and enhance agricultural productivity.

He said the government will provides all the facilities to the Russian investor in the country. Aleksei Gruzdev said that his country will provide modern agricultural machinery to Pakistan in order to boost crop yields and enhance agricultural productivity across the country.

The meeting was attended by deputy trade representative of the Russian Federation in Pakistan Denis Nevzorov, secretary for industries and production Saif Anjum, secretary national food security and research Ali Tahir, additional secretary national food security Amir Mohyudin, deputy chief industries and production Abdul Samad and Executive Engineer PSM Engr. Muhammad Shoaib.

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Anti-money laundering watchdog urges India to speed up prosecutions

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A customer hands Indian currency notes to an attendant at a fuel station in Mumbai, India on August 13, 2018. — Reuters

 NEW DELHI: Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global anti-money laundering watchdog, urged India on Thursday to accelerate its prosecutions in financial fraud cases. 

FATF, a 40-member task force, in a report has rated India “moderately” effective on its parameter of “money laundering investigation and prosecution”, further adding that the country was compliant in most areas. 

The task force sets global standards for national authorities cracking down on illicit funds generated through drug trafficking, illegal arms trade, cyber fraud and other serious crimes.

India became a member in 2010. In its report the task force said the country was “compliant” and “largely compliant” on 37 out of 40 parameters evaluated as part of its assessment.

The number of money laundering convictions over the last five years has been impacted by a series of constitutional challenges and by the saturation of the court system, the global watchdog said in its report on India, released on Thursday. India’s courts have huge backlogs of cases, with many left pending for years.

The Enforcement Directorate, India’s anti-money laundering agency, has seized assets of suspected financial criminals amounting to 9.3 billion euros ($10.4 billion) over the last five years but confiscation based on convictions amounted to less than $5 million, the report said.

“It is critical India addresses these issues in view of accused persons waiting for cases to be tried and prosecutions to be concluded,” it said.

The three areas in which there is partial compliance include bank scrutiny of political figures’ source of wealth and oversight of the finances of non-profit organisations and non-financial businesses and professionals.

The watchdog also noted that India faced financing threats from groups active in the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) region and money laundering from illegal activities related to corruption, drug trafficking and cyber crime.

The statement added that India needs to focus on concluding the prosecutions and properly sanction such financiers.  

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Pakistan, Russia plan free Trade Agreement with Eurasian Economic Union – Pakistan Observer

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ISLAMABAD – Pakistan and Russia mulled stern measures to boost economic ties with new trade and energy initiatives, as the Russian Deputy Prime Minister arrived in Islamabad to discuss several key areas of collaboration.

In a press conference with Pakistan’s Deputy PM Dar Ishaq Dar, both sides decide to explore bilateral trade between two countries reached $1 billion last year and highlighted the need to address logistical and other challenges to further enhance trade relations.

Dar stressed that energy cooperation with Russia holds significant promise and expressed Islamabad’s interest to explore more avenues. He underscored importance of developing connectivity projects, including rail and road networks, to strengthen economic ties not just between Pakistan and Russia but extending to other regions as well.

Deputy PM emphasized Pakistan’s view of Russia as a crucial player in West, South, and Central Asia, and reaffirmed that strengthening ties with Russia remains a top priority in Pakistan’s foreign policy. He reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to working with Russia to promote peace and stability in Afghanistan.

In his remarks, he revealed discussions about potential collaboration between Pakistan and the Eurasian Economic Union, which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Caucasia, and Russia. The two sides explored the possibilities for implementing a free trade agreement involving these five countries and plan to continue discussions to finalize the agreement.

Russian Minister also pointed out that the upcoming inter-governmental commission meeting in Russia will serve as a platform to further enhance trade and economic relations. He further highlighted that both nations share aligned goals within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), including in areas such as connectivity, climate action, food security, and energy transition.

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Easypaisa introduces Rs99 fee for Biometric, and account upgradation? – Pakistan Observer

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EasyPaisa, mobile wallet used by over 9.5 million Pakistanis, lately added Rs99 charges for failed biometric verification with NADRA and account upgradation a fee that lacks clear regulatory justification. Users reported multiple deductions from their accounts after unsuccessful attempts to match their fingerprints.

A recent notification received by Easypaisa users said “Your fingerprints could not be matched with your ID Card from NADRA records”, asking the person to scan fingerprints.

It mentioned you can get your account biometrically verified at your nearest retailer, and that a fee of Rs. 99 will be charges from your account for biometric verfication.

Easypaisa Introduces Rs99 Fee For Biometric And Account Upgradation

The recent move raised question and Easypaisa is yet to share an official statement on the mettter of introducing new charges.

In 2023, the mobile wallet company imposed a monthly SMS alert fee of Rs15, which raised concerns among its vast users. for the unversed, Pakistan’s central bank directed all banks and microbanks to share free SMS and email alerts.

JazzCash new charges on cash deposits

 

 

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